Bubonic plague: can the size of buboes be accurately and consistently measured with a digital calliper?

INTRODUCTION: Conducting clinical research on treatments for emerging infectious diseases is often complicated by methodological challenges, such as the identification of appropriate outcome measures to assess treatment response and the lack of validated instruments available to measure patient outcomes. In bubonic plague, some studies have assessed bubo size as an indicator of treatment success, a measure widely assumed to be indicative of recovery. Evaluating this outcome however is challenging as there is no validated method for measuring bubo size. The aim of this study is to assess the accuracy and inter- and intra-rater agreement of artificial bubo measurements using a digital calliper to understand whether a calliper is an appropriate measurement instrument to assess this outcome. METHODS: Study technicians measured 14 artificial buboes made from silicone overlaid with artificial silicone skin sheets over the course of two training sessions. Each artificial bubo was measured by each study technician once per training session, following a Standard Operating Procedure. The objectives of this study are to (i) evaluate the accuracy of individual measurements against the true size of the artificial bubo when using a digital calliper, (ii) understand whether the characteristics of the artificial bubo influence measurement accuracy and (iii) evaluate inter- and intra-rater measurement agreement. RESULTS: In total, 14 artificial buboes ranging from 52.7 to 121.6 mm in size were measured by 57 raters, generating 698 measurements recorded across two training sessions. Raters generally over-estimated the size of the artificial bubo. The median percentage difference between the measured and actual bubo size was 13%. Measurement accuracy and intra-rater agreement decreased as the size of the bubo decreased. Three quarters of all measurements had a maximum of 25% difference from another measurement of the same artificial bubo. Inter-rater agreement did not vary with density, size or presence of oedema of the artificial bubo. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study demonstrate the challenges for both individual and multiple raters to repeatedly generate consistent and accurate measurements of the same artificial buboes with a digital calliper.

The impact of COVID-19 on clinical research for Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs): A case study of bubonic plague.

BACKGROUND: Among the many collaterals of the COVID-19 pandemic is the disruption of health services and vital clinical research. COVID-19 has magnified the challenges faced in research and threatens to slow research for urgently needed therapeutics for Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) and diseases affecting the most vulnerable populations. Here we explore the impact of the pandemic on a clinical trial for plague therapeutics and strategies that have been considered to ensure research efforts continue. METHODS: To understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the trial accrual rate, we documented changes in patterns of all-cause consultations that took place before and during the pandemic at health centres in two districts of the Amoron'I Mania region of Madagascar where the trial is underway. We also considered trends in plague reporting and other external factors that may have contributed to slow recruitment. RESULTS: During the pandemic, we found a 27% decrease in consultations at the referral hospital, compared to an 11% increase at peripheral health centres, as well as an overall drop during the months of lockdown. We also found a nation-wide trend towards reduced number of reported plague cases. DISCUSSION: COVID-19 outbreaks are unlikely to dissipate in the near future. Declining NTD case numbers recorded during the pandemic period should not be viewed in isolation or taken as a marker of things to come. It is vitally important that researchers are prepared for a rebound in cases and, most importantly, that research continues to avoid NTDs becoming even more neglected.

Baseline malaria prevalence and care-seeking behaviours in rural Madagascar prior to a trial to expand malaria community case management to all ages.

BACKGROUND: Integrated community case management of malaria, pneumonia, and diarrhoea can reduce mortality in children under five years (CU5) in resource-poor countries. There is growing interest in expanding malaria community case management (mCCM) to older individuals, but limited empirical evidence exists to guide this expansion. As part of a two-year cluster-randomized trial of mCCM expansion to all ages in southeastern Madagascar, a cross-sectional survey was conducted to assess baseline malaria prevalence and healthcare-seeking behaviours. METHODS: Two enumeration areas (EAs) were randomly chosen from each catchment area of the 30 health facilities (HFs) in Farafangana district designated for the mCCM age expansion trial; 28 households were randomly selected from each EA for the survey. All household members were asked about recent illness and care-seeking, and malaria prevalence was assessed by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) among children < 15 years of age. Weighted population estimates and Rao-Scott chi-squared tests were used to examine illness, care-seeking, malaria case management, and malaria prevalence patterns. RESULTS: Illness in the two weeks prior to the survey was reported by 459 (6.7%) of 8050 respondents in 334 of 1458 households surveyed. Most individuals noting illness (375/459; 82.3%) reported fever. Of those reporting fever, 28.7% (112/375) sought care; this did not vary by participant age (p = 0.66). Most participants seeking care for fever visited public HFs (48/112, 46.8%), or community healthcare volunteers (CHVs) (40/112, 31.0%). Of those presenting with fever at HFs or to CHVs, 87.0% and 71.0%, respectively, reported being tested for malaria. RDT positivity among 3,316 tested children < 15 years was 25.4% (CI: 21.5-29.4%) and increased with age: 16.9% in CU5 versus 31.8% in 5-14-year-olds (p < 0.0001). Among RDT-positive individuals, 28.4% of CU5 and 18.5% of 5-14-year-olds reported fever in the two weeks prior to survey (p = 0.044). CONCLUSIONS: The higher prevalence of malaria among older individuals coupled with high rates of malaria testing for those who sought care at CHVs suggest that expanding mCCM to older individuals may substantially increase the number of infected individuals with improved access to care, which could have additional favorable effects on malaria transmission.

An open-label, randomized, non-inferiority trial of the efficacy and safety of ciprofloxacin versus streptomycin + ciprofloxacin in the treatment of bubonic plague (IMASOY): study protocol for a randomized control trial.

BACKGROUND: Bubonic plague is the primary manifestation of infection with Yersinia pestis, accounting for 90% of all plague cases and with 75% of global cases reported in Madagascar. All drugs in use for treating plague are registered based on experimental data and anecdotal evidence, and no regimen currently recommended is supported by a randomized clinical trial. The IMASOY trial intends to fill this knowledge gap by comparing two 10-day regimens included in the national guidelines in Madagascar. The primary objective of the trial is to test the hypothesis that ciprofloxacin monotherapy is non-inferior to streptomycin followed by ciprofloxacin for the treatment of bubonic plague, thus avoiding the need for injectable, potentially toxic, aminoglycosides. METHODS: A two-arm parallel-group randomized control trial will be conducted across peripheral health centres in Madagascar in five districts. Males and non-pregnant females of all ages with suspected bubonic or pneumonic plague will be recruited over the course of three plague 'seasons'. The primary endpoint of the trial is to assess the proportion of patients with bubonic plague who have a therapeutic response to treatment (defined as alive, resolution of fever, 25% reduction in the size of measurable buboes, has not received an alternative treatment and no clinical decision to continue antibiotics) as assessed on day 11. DISCUSSION: If successful, the trial has the potential to inform the standard of care guidelines not just in Madagascar but in other countries afflicted by plague. The trial is currently ongoing and expected to complete recruitment in 2022. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04110340 . Registered on 1 October 2019.